tv FOX News Sunday With Chris Wallace FOX Business September 21, 2014 10:00pm-11:01pm EDT
secure the borders because police can focus on actual criminals and terrorists. that's all for me here in washington. "fox news sunday" is on next with chris wallace. >> i'm chris wallace. the white house intruder had a knife. and congress approves part of the congress plan to fight isis amid growing dissent between the president and his top general. >> as your commander in chief, i will not commit you and the rest of our armed forces to fighting another ground war in iraq. >> if there are threats to the united states, then i of course would go back to the president and make a recommendation that may include the use of the u.s. military ground forces. >> will the president's strategy work? we'll talk with two members of the house intelligence committee. peter king and adam schiff. then nfl commissioner roger goodell says he got it wrong in
the ray rice case. but promises to track down on domestic violence. >> i made a mistake. i'm not satisfied with the process that we went through. i'm not satisfied with the conclusions. >> with a number of major sponsors turning up the heat, where does the nfl go from here? we'll talk with sports commentator jim gray and our sunday panel weighs in. plus, it's just 44 days to the midterm elections. with control of the senate up for grabs. we'll handicap the key races and get some predictions from our political gurus, karl rove and joe trippi. and our power player of the week, best selling author daniel silva on creating one of the top spies. >> i think we secretly hope there are people like gabriel elan out there. >> all up next. >> hello from fox news in washington. the secret service has stepped
up security around the white house after a man with a knife made it inside the president's home friday night. fox news correspondent elizabeth friend joins us from the north lawn where it all happened. >> reporter: hi, chris. security has been enhanced after a texas man carrying a 3 1/2 inch serrated blade jumped over the fence to the white house. the location of his arrest is unacceptable. it was all caught on video. 4 -year-old omar gonzalez sprinting toward the pillars of the north portico. he wasn't stopped until he passed through the threshold of the white house doors. a source says at least one officer was outside the door with his weapon out but decided not to shoot, using his own discretion. gonzalez was not taken down on the lawn or met by dogs. >> i can't understand why the dog was released. why no one intercepted him or tackled him. it's baffling to me and a lot of
folks. >> the president was not home at night, having left minutes beforehand for his daughter for camp david. the first lady was also away. it's only been a week and a half since a man wearing a pokemon costume, who was met immediately by officers with a gun and a dog unit. on saturday law enforcement officials conducted a shoulder to shoulder sweep of the front lawn, plaza and adjacent park before kevin carr was arrested and charged for trying to enter a barricaded white house entry with his car. gonzalez was charged with unlawfully entering a restricted building or grounds while carrying a deadly or dangerous weapon. the secret service said just last night they're conducting a xrens si review. chris, back to you. >> elizabeth, thanks for that. congress is now on record giving bipartisan approval to president obama's plan to train syrian rebels. but it was a hold your nose and
say yes vote as members of congress and some of the president's top military advisers expressed strong doubts about the obama plan to fight isis. we want to explore that with two members of the house intelligence committee who both voted to approve the president's request. in new york, republican congressman peter king and here in washington, democrat adam schiff. before we get to isis, congressman king, you're also a member of the house homeland security committee. i want to ask your reaction to this terrible security breach at the white house and what does the secret service need to do better. >> chris, i have great respect for the secret service but this is inexcusable that he went over the fence. i believe it takes 35 to 40 seconds to run across a lawn. a dog can be released in four seconds. and then he made it all the way to the white house, actually entered the front door. and the fact that they say he wasn't brought down because they didn't think he had a weapon. he could have had a body bomb, a
vest on. as we know, he did have a knife. so, this demands a full investigation, why it happened and what's being done to make sure it never happens again. i'm on the homeland security committee and i'm sure chairman mccall will be holding a hearing as to what happened and also as to how the recommendations are being implemented. there can be a lot of conspiracies against the president, complex assassination plots. this is the most simple type of procedure and how anyone, especially in the days of isis, and we're concerned about terrorist tax, someone can actually get into the white house without being stopped is inexcusable. >> let's turn to isis. "the wall street journal" reports that the u.s. wants other nations to agree to take on syria before we launch air strikes in syria. perhaps as early as this coming week. congressman schiff, how dependent should the u.s. be on this international coalition,
especially for military support so that we don't appear to be going it alone? >> i think it's going to be very important we get the regional support of our allies. but it will be tempered. it's not as if we can say, we have the support, we can count on it. we have to go back to them time and time again, pressuring them to do more. pressuring the turks to shut down their border to foreign jih jihadis, pressuring the qataris and saudis, and pressuring them to put overt and arab face on the opposition. i do think it's significant, chris, that saudi arabia is now willing to overtly openly host the training for this rebel force. that's a significant step that will put a big target on saudi backs. we are getting meaningful cooperation but they're not doing it because they love it. they're doing because necessity recognize isis is a real threat to them. >> secretary of state kerry was at the u.n. this week trying to round up international support and he made this surprising statement.
>> there is a role for nearly every country in the world to play including iran. >> congressman king, a couple of questions. first of all, are you as surprised as i am that secretary kerry would be inviting iran into the international coalition? generally speaking, how do you feel? are we getting enough support, especially military support, active military action by our international allies? >> no, chris, so far we're not. where i disagree with the president, attacking isis is in our national interest. if we can get allies and a coalition together, that's fine. we should work on it. but can't be behold ton a coalition. we're not doing this for humanitarian purposes or not doing it for the people of syria or iraq. we're doing it because it's in our national interest to do so. if that's the case, we can't be holding back. we should attack and strike and do what we can to command and
control centers isis has in syria. that's a key component of isis located in syria. we shouldn't be waiting for other countries. >> what about iran? >> i think it's a terrible mistake. first of all, the fact they're shiites and this involves sunnis. also, iran is powerful enough. they're -- ultimately, they are the main threat in that part of the world. and to be doing anything at all to build them up, to give them a sanctuary, to, in effect, have them on our side, what does that do to israel? what does that do to the nuclear development plan in iran? i think it weakens our position. i cannot understand why we want to get iran involved. >> we're continuing to see this remarkable split between the president, who is double down this week and said, absolutely no u.s. boots on the ground in a combat role and his top military advisers, current and former, civilian and military, are all saying we can't rule that out. that's a real possibility.
congressman king, will u.s. forces have to get involved in a combat role, if only to call in air strikes and help iraqi and peshmerga forces on the front line? >> we already have ground troops on the ground. special forces are there. they're in harm's way. i don't see how ultimately we can avoid putting combat troops on the ground in some capacity. more than, that i don't know why the president says up front we're not going to put boots on the ground. don't take anything off the table. never let the enemy know what you're going to do or not do. general madison before the intelligence committee on friday. and he was saying there are two parts. you should never let the enemy know what you're going to do. if we expect to get coalition troops on our side from that region, if the president takes it one step forward and one step sideways, that shows a lack of seriousness and purpose and that's why it will be harder to get saudis, jordanians or uae involved because they're afraid the president won't stick this out.
>> let me bring congressman schiff through intoou this. you oppose the use of combat forces in iraq, but general dempsey, the army chief of staff, ray odierno said they may be needed and so does robert gates, the first obama secretary of defense. take a look. >> there will be boots on the ground if there is to be any hope of success in the strategy. i think by continuing to repeat that, the president, in effect, traps himself. >> congressman, are gates and odierno and dempsey all wrong? >> no, but i don't think they'r. dempsey said if circumstances down the road pose a threat to the united states he'll make a different recommendation. that's what he should do. his role is different from the president's. but the president -- >> the president isn't saying, well f circumstances change.
he's saying no. no u.s. combat forces. >> yes, that's what he's saying. dempsey is also saying that he subscribes to the strategy of utilizing iraqi and peshmerga forces on the ground. not americans in a combat mission. i think that's the right call. what the general is saying, i'm in agreement with that strategy, if that strategy doesn't work or at some point a threat to the yashgts i'm going to make a different rental to the4 president. that's exactly what -- >> and you think the president will be open then to a different strategy? >> i think the president will be open. chris, i want a president who is not going to accept everything that the military says uncritically. we have tried massive occupations in iraq earlier and in afghanistan. we're in afghanistan now. 13 years later we still haven't solved the problem in afghanistan. do we really want to be in position where 13 years from now we are massively occupying syria in iraq? i don't think that's what we want. one other point, chris, that is the president's role is obviously different than the military command's role. it's the military command's job
to tell the president what they want. it's the president's job to decide what they need. and the president has to bring our country along. that's a tough job. >> we have a couple minutes left. i want to ask you each one more question. congressman schiff, i want to ask you about congress, because this week as we pointed out, you did approve $500 million to arm and train the syrian rebels. on the other hand, you're going to go home without a larger vote to authorize what, in effect, is a new war. the question i have is, is congress forfeiting its constitutional responsibility? >> absolutely. absolutely. the president has said this is a war. this is going to last years. that is quintessentially the power of congress only to declare. i think we are really ababdicat role. i think it would be narrow but bring this fight within constitutional framework. i don't accept the administration's argument we can
rely on the amof which applied to a different conflict at a different time. i think it's anç abdication of constitutional dimension. >> finally, congressman king, as we mentioned you're a member of the house homeland security committee. there was this extraordinary event in australia this week where 15 people were arrested for allegedly planning public beheadings they had been urged to carry out on the internet. how concerned are you about the threat here to the u.s. homeland, either from isis or from other al qaeda affiliated groups in syria, like a new group we're hearing about. how concerned are you about the threat to the u.s. homeland either from self-radicalized people who hear about these things on the internet or foreign fighters in syria or iraq and then come back? >> chris, i'm very concerned. we still have al qaeda. we still have al qaeda in the arabian peninsula, we have the new group, isis, al qaeda
affiliates homegrown. i don't subscribe to this belief at all that isis is not a threat to the homeland. not just from fighters coming back but they have thousands of europeans with passports who can come into the u.s. they have more money, more fighters and more than al qaeda had on 9/11. they're a real threat to the u.s. back in 2011 -- >> briefly. >> real briefly. >> we can't take our eye off the ball because al qaeda, the al nusrah franchise poses a more immediate threat to our homeland than isis does at the present. they're trying to work with aqap bombmakers to smuggle on bombs on our planes. we cannot lose sight of that threat. that's a more immediate threat to america. >> i would say they're all a threat. equal threats, coming at us, and we have to be on our guard at all times. if isis went into australia, they can certainly come into the u.s. in 2011 they attempted to attack ft. knox. >> gentlemen, you have thoroughly scared me.
thank you both. thanks for coming in today. coming up, the latest on the scandal involving the national football league and commissioner roger goodell. but first, how much of a coalition has president obama put together to fight isis? our sunday panel joins us next. [ breathing deeply ] [ inhales deeply ] [ sighs ] [ inhales ] [ male announcer ] at cvs health, we took a deep breath... [ inhales, exhales ] [ male announcer ] and made the decision to quit selling cigarettes in our cvs pharmacies. now we invite smokers to quit, too,
with our comprehensive program. we just want to help everyone, everywhere, breathe a little easier. introducing cvs health. because health is everything. [ female announcer ] we love our smartphones. and now telcos using hp big data solutions are feeling the love, too. by offering things like on-the-spot data upgrades -- an idea that reduced overcharge complaints by 98%. no matter how fast your business needs to adapt, if hp big data solutions can keep wireless customers smiling, imagine what they can do for yours. make it matter. with up to 27% more brush movements imagine what they can do patented sonic technology get healthier gums in two weeks guaranteed. philips sonicare discover the brush that's perfect for you.
analyst, julie pace, syndicated columnist george will and fox news political analyst ron williams. julie, from the white house officials you talked with, are they satisfied with the military support they're getting from other countries? do they really intend to wait to get other countries to join in before they launch air strikes against sir and why on earth, a lot of questions for you, would secretary kerry invite iran into the coalition? >> well, in terms of the coalition they have right now, they're certainly not satisfied. really, we just have france publicly on board with air strikes. we have saudi arabia that's committed to training syrian rebels in their country. they're looking specifically, though, for commitments from arab nations to get involved militarily. that's key to this. mostly symbolically. it's not that the u.s. can't carry this out on their own but symbolically they want to have this broad coalition. you'll see the president and secretary kerry at the u.n. trying to build that coalition and get public commitments. when it comes to iran, though, this is really tricky, because
we know what the u.s. has largely ruled out doing with iran, coordinating militarily, through intelligence channels and you have secretary kerry talk about a need to work with them. what that involves if you're not coordinating militarily or intelligence channels, i think, is a big question. >> and also a problem because they're a shiite nation and it only increases the sense this is the shiites against the sunnis, which is a huge divide. brit, let me ask you, so far this is not exactly the coalition of the willing that george w. bush was so widely mocked for when he went into iraq in 2003. >> the numbers are not bad in terms of the number of countries but what's missing here is the elements of a commitment to support what is going to end up having to be a military ground operation. isis holds territory. territory needs to be retain if you're to conquer isis. you can't do that. can you do a lot more from the air but you can't do that
without ground forces. it's not at all clear where these ground forces are going to come from. i don't think any serious military analyst thinks the syrian rebels can be trained up in sufficient number to do away with isis. what's lacking there is a commitment to help this ground operation. one more further word about iran. it's not just that iran is shiite. it's also we're involved in this nuclear negotiation with iran. the iranians are talking about, yeah, we'll help. but we want more flexibility in terms of the nuclear talks. there have you one foreign policy objective undermining another. i think that's a very unfortunate overture. particularly after iran initially saying they didn't want to play and kerry is, in fact, begging. not good. >> i talked with the congressman in the previous segment about this remarkable and continuing split between the president and his top military advisers about how we should conduct the fight against isis. this week on "60 minutes" former
defense secretary for obama, leon panetta, said he was not confident when the president pulled all u.s. troops out of iraq in 2011. take a look. >> no, i wasn't. i really -- really thought it was important for us to maintain a presence in iraq. >> as our resident history yarngs how unusual is for a president to go against his top military advisers, even as he's laying out the strategy for a new war against isis, to go against them repeatedly? >> repeatedly is the key here. truman against mcarthur, we've had disagreements off and on. what dempsey said is if the mission requires this. maybe this is the sort of thing you shouldn't say out loud, but he was invited to by congress and he said that. the fact is that there's a general agreement, i think, that the goal and the means allocated to pursue the goal just don't fit in this case.
referred to the syrian rebels. another are the vetted moderates. i would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when we vetted the opposition. i think all that dempsey was saying is if necessary to achieve the mission, we'll do this. what we're not doing is pal dock. do it overwhelming with undisputable force. >> the white house is doubling down on the president's pledge not to get u.s. troops involved in a combat role on the ground. take a look at this from josh earnest, the presidential spokesman. out the option of deef ploying american boots on the ground in iraq and syria in a combat role. the commander in chief has ruled that out. but -- >> never happen. >> what we will need -- that's correct. >> never happen up. can say dempsey was talking
hypotheticals. odierno said 1600, the amount of troops we have there, is a good start. gates saying, he's trampi intra himself, no boots on the ground. are you worried about this split? >> no. i'm surprised there's so much made of this. we often see splits between the president and their military advisers but the founding fathers, beginning with george washington said, we have civilian control of the military. if you ask the american people, there's no debate here. the american people support the president's position. i'm talking about 64% of republicans, 62% of democrats, according to pew -- >> what percentage of them say they don't think this is going to work? >> a large -- >> that's skeptical. let me say, that's not true. what is true is a large percentage say they have confidence and then they have some confidence and a large percentage who say they don't have confidence. so, have you to get into the numbers. the key point -- well, it's not as overwhelming as you suggest. >> more people say they have
lack of confidence. in any case, it's not a resounding belief that this is going to work. >> correct. there never is. we're going into uncertain waters. what is clear is it's not in the united states national security interest, want in the u.s. military's interest to get dragged into another long-term battle with combat troops on the ground in the middle east. and the president has 1600, to repeat, already on the ground in advisory and training roles. and we have engaged in 170 air strikes that have succeeded thus far in restraining the growth of isis. that's the fact. >> quick final word. >> consider the difference between president's response to isis and the ebola outbreak. he's sending a large force. much larger than isis is getting to deal with this ebola outbreak. why is he doing that? he's doing that, i think, because he believes the united states is uniquely capable of mounting this effort against this disease. united states is undisputably uniquely capable of conquering
isis but he's not putting the full effort into that at all, which is why, i think, that the majority who doubt the efficacy of the strategy do so. they can see this isn't a full-hearted effort. as has been suggested earlier, the coalition partners or would be coalition partners. >> we have to take a break here. when we come back, roger goodell tries to get out ahead of the growing nfl scandal over domestic violence. will it work? plus, what would you like to ask the panel? just go to facebook or twitter @foxnewssunday. yes, we may use your question for those guys on the air. check out all these airline seats. lots of them, right? but when you try to get one by using your travel rewards card miles... those seats mysteriously vanish. why? all the flights you want are blacked out. or they hit you up for some outrageous number of miles. switch to the venture card from capital one. with venture, use your miles on any airline, any flight, any time. no blackout dates. and with every purchase you'll earn unlimited double miles.
now we're getting somewhere. what's in your wallet? you know, if you play football foryou're gonna learn toid, nodeal with alot of pain.re. but it is nothing like the pain that shingles causes. man when i got shingles it was something awful. it was like being blindsided by some linebacker. you don't see it coming. boom! it was this painful rash of little blisters. red, ugly stuff. lots of 'em. not a good deal. if you've had chicken pox, uh-huh, we all remember chicken pox. well that shingles virus is already inside of you. it ain't pretty when it comes out. now i'm not telling you this so that you'll feel sorry for me. i'm just here to tell you that one out of three people are gonna end up getting shingles. i was one of 'em. take it from a guy who's had his fair share of pain. you don't want to be tackled by shingles. so please go talk to your doctor or pharmacist.
talk to your doctor or pharmacist about your risk. no. not exactly. to attain success, one must project success. that's why we use fedex one rate. their flat rate shipping. exactly. it makes us look top-notch but we know it's affordable. [ garage door opening ] [ sighs ] honey, haven't i asked you to please use the -- we don't have a reception entrance. [ male announcer ] ship a pak via fedex express saver® for as low as $7.50. [ male announcer ] ship a pak via fedex express saver® my motheit's delicious. toffee in the world. so now we've turned her toffee into a business. my goal was to take an idea and make it happen. i'm janet long and i formed my toffee company through legalzoom. i never really thought i would make money doing what i love. we created legalzoom to help people start their business and launch their dreams. go to legalzoom.com today
and make your business dream a reality. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. there will be changes to our personal conduct policy. i know this. because we will make it happen. nothing is off the table. >> nfl commissioner roger goodell said he was sorry and promised big changes in how pro football handles cases of domestic violence. our panel will be back in a moment, but first we want to get the latest from sportscaster and fox news contributor jim gray. jim, what's the reaction inside the nfl community, the fans, the players, the owners, to goodell's statements?
we >> well, the owners are going to give him some time. they're firmly in their corner. i spoke to a couple this morning. their quotes are, we have to try to get him past this. we don't know how we will. and someone said, no one including god could have handled this onslaught. the media has been just one condemnation after another since this press conference and since really the ray rice incident occurred. the fans are upset. and the players, particularly former players and players who won't come out and necessarily attach their names to it. they're upset there's a double standard. he can admit a mistake and say, i'm going to go forward. when they admit a mistake to him, they get punished, severely fined and suspended. >> one of the biggest issues has been the commissioner's total control over discipline. he has been judge, jury and executioner. he talked about how often is on the table. do you think he has to give up some of that control over
disciplinary issues either to the players association, their union or some independent body? >> commissioners are always reluctant to give up and cede any power. baseball has a third party, arbitration, that maintains discipline which makes it much more consistent. sometimes you don't get the discipline that the fans necessarily think is coming for the players because the arbitrators don't rule necessarily with the heavy hand commissioners do. roger goodell has always been known as the enforcer, law and order type of commissioner who has handed out steep fines, handed out major penalties. in this instance that's why it's all been so surprising pipts all self-inflicted. to give two games for that, no matter what the circumstances were, most people believe, in fact, all of the owners don't believe he saw the tape. to not have imagined what went on in there, based on his track record and history of being so firm and tough, it's been inexplicable. >> thank you so much more
joining us today. now, let's bring back our sunday group. we asked you questions for the panel. we got this on facebook from joe ping. get off the nfl's back. it's not the nfl headquarters' problem. it's a player problem. we got a lot of facebook, tweets, like that, pig saying in effect goodell and the nfl are being made a scapegoat. >> i think there's something to that. since when is it the job of a sports league to police the private conduct, in this these cases, misconduct, of the players that off the field, outside the realm of football. this is something relatively new. now, obviously the league and its individual teams have a reputation to protect and brands to protect. so, my sense about this is, this will come down to the sponsors. when the sponsors start to bail in large numbers, and you're seeing a trickle of it already,
things will change. look at the vikings this week. they reinstated adrian peterson. then the sponsors, including radisson hotels which spoke of its commitment to the safety of children, weighed in and withdrew sponsorship and virtually overnight the vikings reversed themselves and took peterson off the roster. so, i think that's where you need to look to see the outcome of this. both for goodell and the league. >> the national organization for women, which had called for goodell's response -- rather, resignation, was not the least bit persuaded by his news conference friday. they continue to call for it, showing he's failing to show he's committed to domestic violence. the white house weighed in saying how deeply troubling this situation is. >> i would like to hear from the president on this. he's a sports fan. he is someone who has brought
athletes into the white house for events, used them to promote policy, the father of two daughters, sees women as a group that's viable for him. but the fact it gets to the white house shows how broad the concern is, how widespread the story has become and i think the nfl has to do something a bit more than a friday afternoon press conference to get ahead of this. >> one thing goodell did in his friday afternoon press conference was to express remorse repeatedly. take a look. >> at our best, the nfl sets an example that makes a positive difference. unfortunately, over the past several weeks we have seen all too much of the nfl doing wrong. that starts with me. >> you're close to the baseball commissioner, to the mlb. how do you think goodell has
handled this and your sense of this? does he survive? >> he will survive. he's handled it terribly and it doesn't matter. we're in a highly stylized indignation sweepstakes where everyone commits sociology in all directions saying players are made violent by this, college experience, on and on. the fact is anheuser-busch tells us it's disappointed. anheuser-busch spends $200 million a year on nfl. last year's three most viewed television programs were thursday night football, sunday night football, monday night football. money talks. it will continue to talk. this will pass over and football will continue on its merry way. i think the problem is football. football is merchandising violence and some spills over. >> we talk about what is the role of the commissioner. part of the role is to protect the shield.
that's the nfl shield. lord knows in baseball the commissioner has to protect the integrity of the game and the shield. if you're going to punish somebody, and you could say that has an effect on the game for taking drugs, don't have you to punish them for this kind of behavior? >> certainly. they'll do it, baseball will do it, nhl all will, as brett says, protect their brand because players come and go. the average nfl career is about four years. the league can do it. it's the job of the commissioner to provide continuity. >> weigh in here. i think the commissioner's credibility, i think your line of questioning was penetrating, chris, when you asked jim gray about, is he going to have to give up some of his power and authority? and i think that's exactly what he has to do. he has to get into a deal with smith, the head of the players union, at some point to try to
reconstitute -- the players have a lot of voice. boy f you get on twitter, the players have just been eating roger goodell alive. they don't like him. they don't like this judge and jury scenario. they think there's a double standard for him and for them. they think it's his time for a come-uppance. there's a problem there. i suspect as part of this ongoing resolution, one of the changes is going to be roger goodell is going to have an independent group that will help with discipline. he's already established, he announced on friday, an independent panel to look at how they deal with these problems. i think that panel is going to get more power and the nflpa is going to have a loud voice there. >> i want to ask you, do you want to respond to this indignation pageant going on? >> i'm a football fan. i've been a football fan my whole life. i'm going to go home and watch football today. until you see change in our own behavior as fans, i don't think
we should expect to see widespread changes to the nfl. the other thing i've heard a lot of my friends, younger women say, over the last week or so, they want to hear roger goodell and others talk about the people who have been victims. there seems to be a lack of attention and focus to what some of these women and now children have gone through. and i think that if there can be some -- some focus on that, that could maybe make this easier for women in particular to deal with. >> george, quick final word. >> football's problem is football. it's the concussions. we live in a bubble-wrapped childhood. parents put helmets on their tr. they're not going to let them play football. >> that's an interesting take. what do you think? should roger goodell step down? let me know on facebook or twitter @foxnewssunday wit
your studied day and night for her driver's test. secretly inside, you hoped she wouldn't pass. the thought of your baby girl driving around all by herself was... you just weren't ready. but she did pass. 'cause she's your baby girl. and now you're proud. a bundle of nerves proud. but proud. get a discount when you add a newly-licensed teen to your liberty mutual insurance policy. call to learn about our whole range of life event discounts. newlywed discount. new college graduate and retiree discounts. you could even get a discount when you add a car.
two years ago i had the best seat in the house as 2012 election results were coming in, sitting with to master strategists to look inside the numbers. we'll be back together in 44 days. so, between now and then we're going to talk about november's key races and which part will control the senate with our election night space cowboys. karl rove was the architect of george bush's championship. joe trippi has run a number of campaigns. welcome back.
>> good to be with you. >> let's get an overview, who's going to control the senate. "the new york times," the upshot says republicans have a 56% chance of winning the senate. that's not exact enough for nate silver's 538. he says the gop has a 54.8% chance of gaining majority. karl, what are the republicans' chances and what are the key factors? >> look, i think it's slightly better than that but not a lot better. the republicans are fighting on good turf. they have three open seats, for example, in red states that i think everybody pretty well concedes are in their camp. montana, south dakota and west virginia. it is a dog fight in the rest of the country. four states with incumbent, three, four, five, purple states, one open seat and so it's going to be a very close
contest. the dynamics are good for republicans, enthusiasm high, obama low, desire to send a message to obama very high. the one advantage democrats have is a big cash advantage. they've already booked between labor day and election day $107 million in television advertising. the republicans $25 million less. >> joe, let me turn to you. democratic chances to hold the senate and to pick up on specifically one of karl's points. when the president has an approval rating of about 40%, why isn't this a wave election for the gop? >> well, it should be. look, itg8p should be in this environment a miracle for democrats to hold onto the senate. but right now, i would gauge republicans are likely to pick up between five and eight seats. if democrats hold it to five seats, it will be because of what karl's talking about. a money advantage and also being able to use the obama get out the vote methods that were
perfected in 2012. if they can actually generate that, there's a chance they -- they do have a miracle and stop the republicans from taking senate. >> republicans need a net pick up of six seats to take control of the senate. everybody seems to agree, and you heard karl refer to it, they're going to win these three. montana, where in the latest real clear politics average of polls, congressman steve daines leads by 19 points. west virginia where capito leads by 19 points. and south dakota where mike rounds leads by 13.3. do you agree all three of those states are gone, lost to the democrats? >> absolutely. i don't think anybody looks at those races does not believe they're going to be in gop hands in november? >> yes. two states now held by democrats that look pretty good, pretty strong, for republican takeovers. let's put them up on the screen.
first louisiana where republican congressman bill cassidy leads democratic senator mary landrieu by more than five points. arkansas where republican congressman tom cotton leads democratic incumbent mark pryor by 2.5%. how solid are those for the gop, particularly arkansas when you're talking 2.5 points, that doesn't sound very solid. >> well, except in i think the last poll -- out of the last ten polls going back to the beginning of may, mark pryor has led in one. and tom cotton has led in nine, i believe the number is. look, we have a candidate in arkansas who is running against an institution. mark pryor and his father, david pryor, both long-time politicos there. cotton is smart enough he needs to run through the tape and i feel good about that one. louisiana is likely to be settled in december because they have an odd $
november. if no one gets 50%, which is highly unlikely because there are at least three or four candidates who could get a significant slice of the vote, we'll have a runoff in december. >> that means the control of the senate, we might all have to wait until december to find out. election night may not settle it. let me look at a couple of potential gop pick ups from democratic states, potentially going to the republicans, that are pretty close. let me start with iowa. this is an open seat in iowa and democratic congressman bruce brayly is up against republican state senator ernst. this is flat tied. >> it's a dead heat. this is going to be a donny brook. the interesting play here is does the money advantage and does the get out the vote effort the democrats have perfected, does it turn out more votes for brayly. the rnc have been trying to play catch-up in the ground game with data. we haven't seen that yet.
does that appear in this race as well? >> interestingly enough, i don't think iowa has ever elected a woman to the u.s. senate, republican or democrat. >> or in the governor. i mean, just hasn't happened in any of the top races in8/++ iow. so, it will be interesting. >> there's another race, potential gop pick up, but very close. and we'll put that up on the screen. that's alaska. incumbent democratic senator mark begich trailing former donor dan sullivan by less than two points. that's a close one. >> yeah, 1.3%. remember this, real clear politics average and the rest of these averages are lagging indicators. this race took a dramatic shift three weeks ago this coming thursday. just before labor day, begich ran an ad accusing sullivan for being responsible for the early release of prisoners, including a prisoner who went on to do a brutal murder. turned out, however, the prisoners were released by a clerical error by somebody
months9rx -- recent polling dat indicated this has taken more pro sullivan on the weeks ahead. >> i want to put up a surprising stat. north carolina, generally considered to be a very likely pick up for the republicans in red north carolina but the democratic incumbent senator, kay hagan, is up against the state's house speaker. hagan, who was thought to be in trouble, is hanging in there. >> no, this one, i think, we can put -- i'm ready to start saying if this trend continues, she's going to be re-elected. the interesting thing about these races, with all these incumbents, when you look -- we know they're in trouble if you're under 50 and an incumbent. you look atlas lass, you look at louisiana, you look at other incumbents. they're all in the low 40s or slight -- just slightly above that. that's a very bad side for those
incumbents. that means, you know, you got to start giving a push to the republicans there. but in this race, in north carolina, it seems to be moving the other way. >> now, as we said, the republicans need a net pick up of six seats and that are potentially in jeopardy. if they lose one of those they have to pick up another seat to get to their six. georgia is in some jeopardy. the open seat there. mitch mcconnell, the republican minority leader in kentucky is in some trouble. we want to focus on the most surprising state of all. a possible republican race and that is kansas. take a look at this. with a democrat now according to the course, off the ballot, pat businessman greg orman. in the latest fox news poll, roberts on trails orman by 6 points. how much trouble is he in? >> i think he will prevail at the end. sometime when you're running as an independent and say, i don't
know who i'm going to caucus with. last time i ran for office i was a democrat and i wouldn't have vote for obamacare. you get a little too cute. and at the end of the day, i think roberts will win. not by the margin he should have if he had taken this seriously right from the beginning. it also shows an example of how races are affected by other races. the gov's race in kansas is close. late last week it was revealed that the democratic candidate for governor had been arrested, not arrested, he had been detained briefly a number of years ago when he was an attorney for a strip joint and the police found him getting a lap dance. straight lace kansas, that's not a great credential to run for governor. >> no, i suppose, your thoughts about kansas and how much trouble pat roberts is in. >> i think he is in deep trouble and probably gone. i've been out there. and once an incumbent starts to unravel, it is really hard to
put that genie back in the bottle. >> you can hear what carl is saying. they're going to go after greg orman. he's gotten a pass up until now. they'll talk about things in his record. >> and i think greg orman will go after him in washington. that's not a great place to be if you're in kansas and an incumbent. >> we have less than a minute left. what should we be at for those last 44 days? >> well, i think we've got a pretty good sense of it. the democrats will try to hold this senate by trying to hold north carolina, alaska. trying to make an inroad into kansas and also, worried deepbly iowa and colorado. we haven't talked about colorado but colorado is a very narrow race. separate by .7%. the latest polls are indicating movement, 48 gardner, 40 for the long time democratic incumbent, mark udall. so we're going to see them forced in a number of places.
>> we can't cover them all but i thought we did pretty well here. we want to thank you both. we'll bring you back several times in these final weeks to focus on where the battle for the senate stands. up next, our power player of the week. master of espionage. [ hoof beats ] i wish... please, please, please, please, please.
[ male announcer ] the wish we wish above all...is health. so we quit selling cigarettes in our cvs pharmacies. expanded minuteclinic, for walk-in medical care. and created programs that encourage people to take their medications regularly. introducing cvs health. a new purpose. a new promise... to help all those wishes come true. cvs health. because health is everything. cvs health. are the largest targets in the world, for every hacker, crook and nuisance in the world. but systems policed by hp's cyber security team are constantly monitored for threats. outside and in. that's why hp reports and helps neutralize more intrusions than anyone... in the world. if hp security solutions can help keep the world's largest organizations safe, they can keep yours safe, too. make it matter.
with up to 27% more brush movements patented sonic technology get healthier gums in two weeks guaranteed. philips sonicare discover the brush that's perfect for you. (agent) i'll walk you guys through every step. there are a lot of buyers for a house like yours. (husband) that's good to know. over 12,000 financial advisors. so, how are things? good, good. nearly $800 billion dollars in assets under care. let me just put this away. how did edward jones get so big? could you teach our kids that trick? by not acting that way. ok, last quarter... it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. ♪
along with millions of other readers i'm looked on a series of spy thrillers. they come out once a year and as soon as you finish the latest book, you can't wait for the next one. here is our power player of the week. >> i think that plot for me has always been secondary to establishing good characters. >> daniel silva is talking about the secret to the success of his best selling spy novels. a series of 14 books featuring gabriel allon. >> he is a legendary israeli officer and assassin who happens to have a very interesting cover job. he is one of the world's finest art restorers. >> you talk about him as if he is almost a real person. >> to me he is a real person. think of my typical day. i'm at my desk at 7:00. i write until 3:00 or 4:00 in
the afternoon. i spend more time in his world than the real world. >> silva says allon fixes people and situations. whether it is al qaeda terrorists or russian arms dealers, or in his latest book, the heist, art theft by the assad regime in syria. >> how do you explain his appeal to millions of readers? >> i think that secretly, we hope that there are people like gabriel allon out there. >> as an avid reader of his books, i can tell you is part of the appeal is the details about the places he goes and his spy craft. >> i like to walk in gabriel's foot stems. that journey has taken him from the cliffs of cornwall to the art restoration labs of the vatican, the kgb headquarters. there's more to his process of writing. >> this is the heist in its original form. written in long hand on legal pads. i write in pencil, not just any
pencil. it has to be spaefk pencil. i like the black warrior number two. >> a form he journalist, he has narrated the tv news woman. and he has strong opinions with the world he writes about. >> how do you feel about the state of the middle east these days? >> it is a complete and utter disaster. there's really no more syria. there's no more iraq. we are going to face serious challenges there for decades to come. >> he says even gabriel allon couldn't fix these problems which leaves a couple of final questions. >> your books are so popular. why have they never been made into movies? >> because of me. >> silva says he's had plenty of offers but -- >> i'm very picky about it. i want to make sure that we get it right. >> and then the big question
about any spy thriller. >> do you know how gabriel's story ends? >> i do not. i've never really had in my mind a, that vanishing point out there where i wanted the story to end and then it goes black. i've never come to that yet. i hope i never do, actually. >> there is no need to worry about that any time soon. daniel silva is hard at work on those legal pads busy writing his 15th gabriel allon book. one final note today. the washington national's clinched the national league east division this week and we're pointing ourselves the official sunday talk show of the team throughout the playoffs. we even have our lucky jason worth garden gnome. so go nats. that's it for today. have a great week.
in for lou dobbs. keep it right here on fox business. cheryl: good evening, everyone. i am cheryl casone he in for lou dobbs. we have multiple stories developing. the director of national intelligence admits that the white house underestimated the strength of the islamic state while simultaneously overestimating it the strength of the iraqi military. the former obama defense secretary leon panetta says we never should have pulled out of iraq. and retired air force general outlines the pitfalls of the american strategy here tonight. and roger mcdowell finally raking his silence after a week of child abuse and domestic violence and drug possession